Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
